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Prediction for CME (2026-01-10T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-10T20:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43888/-1
CME Note: Thin jet-like CME observed to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1 and unseen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 2026-01-10T14:53Z. The source is a complex eruption associated with a C2.1 flare (S16W04) from AR 14339 peaking at 2026-01-10T19:42Z observed in SDO AIA 131, observed as what is likely two bulk fronts as CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z and CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Following the flare, filament ejecta is observed in SDO AIA 304 traveling S/SW but appearing to mostly fall back onto the disk likely associated with this CME, and that is followed by dimming starting around 2026-01-10T19:57Z centered around S27W02 observed in SDO AIA 193 likely associated with CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Arrival signature: Characterized by a small, gradual enhancement in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 2nT to 7nt , B_x: approx. 2nT to 5nT , B_y: approx. 1nT to -6nT , B_z: approx. -4nT to 1nT) as well as minor increases in temperature, density and velocity components. Following the minor enhancement, magnetic field components remained smooth and separated, and density slightly decreased, indicating the likely passage of a small flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-13T13:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-13T13:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43923/1
Model Inputs:
2026-01-10T20:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=7.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=1045.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2026-01-10T23:30Z
2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-29.0, Speed=809.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2026-01-11T00:29Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-13T13:11Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =24.6 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-13T08:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-12T21:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-14T10:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260110_233000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 20.83 hour(s)
Difference: 0.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-12T16:53Z

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